Many novice gamblers believe the most effective way to earn money betting on sports is to be able to predict accurately the outcomes of sports events.
In a sense, this is the case, however the reality is that no one can predict their results all the time. There are so many factors to take into consideration. Anyone who has followed games for a long time will have seen some amazing things happen.
Some of the best gamblers can’t succeed every time, regardless of how well they are aware of their games and how diligently they research the rules.
It’s helpful to get your bets on the right track as frequently as you can, however one aspect that is often ignored is value. Value is a term that is frequently used by bettors on sports and is one that you must learn familiar with.
The Hit Rate
A hit percentage is simple, it is the percentage of winning bets you place. If you bet 10 times and get 6 wins, your rate of success is 60 percent. You will hit 6 times out of 10.
A high percentage of hits is frequently viewed as a reliable strategy to pick in the betting industry, however it isn’t true. It is possible to have a high percentage of hits and be losing money.
If the odds of betting on sports always match the likelihood of an event taking place, then the sole way you could win consistently money from betting on sports is to beat chance itself. In the long term, this would be extremely unlikely. It’s even less likely when you consider that bookmakers generally place bets at a price that is slightly lower than the probability line to make a profit for them.
Your hit rate will only be able to determine the amount of bets you put in with respect to the amount you are able to win. It does not determine the value the bet.
Probability
Probability is the chance or probability of an event taking place. If you throw a coin, the probability of hitting a six is one in six. The probability of hitting the numbers 1,2,3,4 or 5 is also one in six. The probability of winning in sports betting can not be determined with certainty however, we can make a decision from the form of play, head-to head records , and so on.
The positive side is the fact that gamblers are on the same page like bookies in assessing the probability. In addition, bookies have a more bets to be concerned about than you do. If they are able to get away with it, bookmakers will prefer to provide bets that are priced below the chance of an event happening.
It’s not always the case.
Recognizing Good Value
Knowing the value of a bet at 겜블시티 isn’t easy initially but after having gone through it a few times it becomes much simpler.
Imagine that Everton are playing , and you’re given odds of 6/4 in the event of a victory. In this scenario, the implied likelihood of winning Everton win is 40 percent.
The way to do this is in the following manner:
6 . Divided by 4. = 1.5
1.5 plus 1 = 2.5
One divided in 2.5 equals 2.5 = 0.4
0.4 100 x 40 = 40 percent
If the chances of winning an Everton win were equal to 1/2, the odds would be 67%..
One divided by two = 0.5
0.5 plus 1 = 1.5
1 . Divided 1 by 1.5 = 0.67
0.67 100 x 0.67 = 67 percent
If you wager PS20 for Everton at 6/4, you are guaranteed to win PS50. The probabilities of winning this PS50 is 40 percent. Thus, 4 times in ten , you will get PS50 or six of the ten times, you lose PS20. Of course you will lose PS20, but the PS50 is the stake you have therefore the amount you win is PS30.
Expected Value = (Probability of Winning x Money won) (x (Probability of losing x stake)
Chance of winning = 40%. Amount won = PS30
Probability of Loss = 60 percent
Stake = PS20
Expected Value = (40 percent of PS30) (60%) (60 percent of PS20) = PS12 PS12 = PS0
You can see that the worth of an investment that is priced at the likelihood of happening is zero. In the end, you’d expect to get zero profit from this.
In the event that you think the probability for Everton winning is over 40 percent. Actually, it’s much higher with around 50%.
Expected Value = (50 percent of PS50) (50%) (50 percent of PS20) = PS25 PS10 = PS10.
It’s now a more attractive value option. For another perspective it’s a great bargain bet. It is possible to be successful or unsuccessful in the short run however over the long run, you can be able to earn profits. In the event that the probabilities of winning an Everton win are approximately 50%, a bet of 6/4 seems to be a good price.
To conclude
After that, you’ll be able calculate what a bookmaker’s opinion of the worth of a bet is. Once you’ve determined your own probabilities of a specific event just compare them.
If your odds are more than that than yours, you’ll know if you’ve made a sound wager or not.
Happy hunting and good luck.
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